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Let's say we have a game that can be reasonably modeled as two independent Poisson processes with team i having parameter λi. If one team wins in regulation with team i scoring ni, then it's well-known we have the MLE estimate ^λi=ni. But what if the game ends in a tie in regulation with each team scoring n goals and we have sudden-death overtime? How does this affect the MLE estimate for the winning and losing teams? Assuming without loss of generality that team 1 is the winner in sudden-death overtime. As we have two independent Poisson processes, the probability of this occurring is λ1λ1+λ2. Thus, the overall likelihood we'd like to maximize is L=e−λ1λ1nn!e−λ2λ2nn!λ1λ1+λ2. Letting l=logL we get \[l = -{\lambda_1} + n \log{\lambda_1} - {\lambda_2} + n \log{\lambda_2} - 2 \log{n!}...