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The Kelly Criterion is an alternative to standard utility theory, which seeks to maximize expected utility. Instead, the Kelly Criterion seeks to maximize expected growth. That is, if we start out with an initial bankroll B0, we seek to maximize E[g(t)], where Bt=B0⋅eg(t).
As a simple example, consider the following choice. We can have a sure $3000, or we can take the gamble of a 45 chance of $4000 and a 15 chance of $0. What does Kelly say?
Assume we have a current bankroll of B0. After the first choice we have B1=B0+3000, which we can write as E[g(1)]=log(B0+3000B0);for the second choice we have E[g(1)]=45log(B0+4000B0).And so we want to compare log(B0+3000B0) and 45log(B0+4000B0).
Exponentiating, we're looking for the positive root of (B0+3000)5−B0⋅(B0+4000)4=0.Wolfram Alpha now tells us that we should go with the sure thing if B0<$4942.92, and take the gamble otherwise.
As a simple example, consider the following choice. We can have a sure $3000, or we can take the gamble of a 45 chance of $4000 and a 15 chance of $0. What does Kelly say?
Assume we have a current bankroll of B0. After the first choice we have B1=B0+3000, which we can write as E[g(1)]=log(B0+3000B0);for the second choice we have E[g(1)]=45log(B0+4000B0).And so we want to compare log(B0+3000B0) and 45log(B0+4000B0).
Exponentiating, we're looking for the positive root of (B0+3000)5−B0⋅(B0+4000)4=0.Wolfram Alpha now tells us that we should go with the sure thing if B0<$4942.92, and take the gamble otherwise.
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